Philosophy to Policy: Strategic Culture in Dragon’s Nuclear Strategy

Abstract

This research paper, "Philosophy to Policy: Strategic Culture in Dragon's Nuclear Strategy," explores the intricate relationship between China's strategic culture and its evolving nuclear strategy. Drawing from historical legacies, philosophical traditions such as Confucianism, Taoism, and Legalism, and geopolitical imperatives, the authors argue that China’s nuclear posture reflects a uniquely Chinese approach to deterrence and power projection. While adhering to its "No First Use" (NFU) policy and "Assured Retaliation" doctrine, China has pursued rapid modernization and diversification of its nuclear arsenal under President Xi Jinping, including mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched capabilities. This shift, driven by a perceived need to counter both nuclear and conventional threats, particularly from the United States, reveals a dualistic strategic culture blending defensive Confucian ideals with realpolitik offensiveness, termed the "Chinese Cult of Defence." The paper highlights how this cultural framework shapes China’s ambition to secure its "rightful place" in the global order while maintaining ambiguity and psychological deterrence as key tactics.

The study further examines how China’s strategic culture influences its reluctance to engage in nuclear arms control, its alliances with nations like Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea, and its perception of external threats, notably from the U.S. The authors underscore that China’s historical narrative of victimhood, stemming from the "Century of Humiliation," fuels a siege mentality, reinforcing its nuclear buildup as a means of ensuring inviolability and moral superiority. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, this has translated into an assertive military modernization campaign, with a 7.2% defense budget increase in 2024 aimed at achieving a world-class military by 2027. The paper concludes that the absence of internal debate and the concentration of power in one leader heighten the risk of strategic miscalculations, potentially destabilizing global security. Understanding this correlation between strategic culture and nuclear strategy is vital for managing international stability and anticipating China’s future nuclear behavior.