Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy

Implications for US-China Nuclear Relations and International Security by Tong Zhao

Abstract

Tong Zhao’s book, Political Drivers of China's Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security, offers a fresh perspective on China’s nuclear modernization, emphasizing political motivations over traditional strategic or technical rationales. Zhao argues that under Xi Jinping’s leadership, nuclear weapons have gained heightened political significance, serving as tools to enhance China’s great power status and address broader strategic challenges, rather than merely responding to U.S. missile defenses or military advancements. By analyzing authoritative Chinese military texts and Xi’s centralized decision-making framework, Zhao highlights how domestic political dynamics—such as regime security and a growing sense of existential threats—drive China’s nuclear expansion. This shift, he contends, reflects a deeper ambition to counter perceived U.S. hostility and secure political stability, though it complicates U.S.-China nuclear relations due to differing views on strategic stability and mutual misperceptions.

The book further explores the implications of China’s nuclear policy for bilateral relations and international security, identifying challenges like information gaps, ambiguous core interests, and the marginalization of technical expertise in China’s policymaking. Zhao critiques the U.S. failure to grasp China’s logic linking nuclear strength to political conciliation and proposes bilateral measures—such as acknowledging perception gaps and establishing behavioral principles inspired by Cold War precedents—to foster stability. He also offers targeted recommendations: the U.S. should clarify its nuclear posture, while China must articulate how nuclear weapons ensure political stability and consider non-military alternatives. Javed Alam praises the book as a vital resource for nuclear experts and policymakers, providing a nuanced lens into China’s evolving nuclear strategy beyond conventional military narratives.