Air Denial

What We Know? vs What Should We Know?

Abstract

 The extent to which theory fails to foresee actual battle situations may determine the difference between success and failure. The undeniable fact that military organizations responsible for maintaining national security will work to produce relevant doctrine, combined with the conviction that an impending conflict will include unforeseen events despite the best efforts of planners, especially if a country enters an unexpected conflict, stands true. Because a thorough understanding of the conditions of future combat is beyond any strategist’s ability to predict, those who will handle future war situations and execute doctrine may find it insufficient. It is remarkable how doctrine can be completely wrong, even for a foreseen or anticipated conflict. Obviously, no organization desires to create defective doctrine, but some doctrines, despite the best of intentions, lead to disaster for the armed forces that deploy them. The major powers went to war in 1914 expecting it to be brief and conclusive, with their military advocating the virtues of offensive warfare. However, nothing went as planned. “War is a harsh teacher,” warned Thucydides in ancient times. His dictum has been proven time and again, and the war in Ukraine is no different. The prolonged war should act as a “wake-up call” to the international community. Despite Russia’s numerical and firepower advantages, Kyiv has proven to be a formidable rival by mixing old and new tactics and technology, signaling a turning point in air power history. Ukraine has effectively implemented an air denial mechanism. As a result, Kyiv has been able to restrict Russian fighter aircraft operations over most of Ukraine while flying its own, primarily unmanned assets in the air littoral. The occurrence of air warfare in this contested battle between Russia and Ukraine offers lessons for respective air forces; this article specifically aims to scrutinize the overzealous claim of security experts that “Air denial is the future of Air Warfare.” 

As the discussion over the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues, it is important to remember that all conflicts are contextual. Warfare is all about who is fighting whom, for what goals, with what resources, and under what limits. Correct interpretation of events is only achievable when political objectives, military tactics, and restrictions—military, political, and economic—are clear. Only then can one understand the realities of the battlefield.