Uncertainty

The Element of “Whether” in Weather

Abstract

Weather forecasting involves the efficient application of science and technology to predict atmospheric conditions at a specific time and place. This has become an integral and pivotal aspect of aviation safety. Scientific prediction based on meteorological tools is not a new phenomenon.

Extreme weather conditions have significantly impacted wars and led to the defeat of leaders like Napoleon (1812, brutal Russian winters). Other instances where weather has been a major factor in shaping the outcome of wars include Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union (1941), the sparing of Kokura city during the Nagasaki bombing (1945), the destruction of the Spanish Armada (1588), the escape from Long Island (1776), the Battle of the Bulge (1944-1945), and a tornado saving Washington (1814). These are just a few examples of famous events influenced by weather conditions.

In this article, I will discuss the major factors that affect weather and how they contribute to the uncertainties in weather predictions. I will also describe the basic physical laws that govern atmospheric weather and their implications for flight operations.