An Assessment of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in 2023

Abstract

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban, has been on an upward trajectory since the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021. The resurgent group, which ended the ceasefire with the government in November 2022, has not only presented the biggest internal security challenge to Pakistan but has also severely impeded bilateral ties with Afghanistan. Consequently, Pakistan has witnessed a sharp uptick in terrorist activities, accentuating the destabilizing impact on the country. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies’ (PICS) 2023 Annual Report, Pakistan witnessed a 70 percent increase in attacks, an 81 percent increase in deaths, and a 62 percent uptick in the number of injuries. The 2023 Annual Report of the Centre for Research and Security Studies, on the other hand, suggests that overall fatalities marked a six-year high—the highest since 2017—with a staggering 56 percent increase from 2022 levels. While estimates from Islamabad-based think tanks may vary, the key issue is that the majority of these attacks were waged by the proscribed TTP. This paper attempts to assess the developments concerning the TTP in 2023, as they are pivotal for gaining insights into the present trends that may carry into the year 2024.